🔗 Share this article

Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking upset.

However the current competition is profoundly unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a typical season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still