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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to consider security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.